Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-08-14
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price257.26 USD
Fair value318.75
Ethical score80.6/100
RatingSTRONG OPPORTUNITY
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-10Read Distribution257.26+0.0% to today
2026-07-18Read Markup237.25+8.4% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Adobe Inc. holds its Distribution at $257.26. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$257.26
Valuation
14.72 trailing · 9.36 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 80.6
Beta
1.42
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
22.54%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 22.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
3.95%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
26.36%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 26.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.11%
Below 5%
Only 1.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads STRONG OPPORTUNITY: it trades at roughly a 24% discount to our $318.75 fair value, strong competitive moat, 12.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 23.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 34 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −1% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
The value the crowd left behind
The market decided Adobe was an AI casualty — that a wave of generative image tools would eat Photoshop's lunch — and it sold the stock down to a level that makes little sense for a business this good. Adobe still owns the creative-software standard the design world runs on, from Photoshop to Acrobat to the enterprise marketing stack, and it is building its own AI, Firefly, directly into those tools rather than watching from the sidelines.
Why it stands out. This is a wide-moat franchise still growing double digits, and it trades at under nine times forward earnings — the multiple you'd put on a fading industrial, not the backbone of the creative economy. Our fair value sits around $310 against a price near $237, roughly 30% of upside even on our conservative, consensus-anchored read — and on the list of stocks the biggest finance channels are all buying, it is quietly one of the best values of the lot. It clears our ethical screen cleanly.
The honest risk. The disruption fear is not nothing — if generative tools genuinely erode Adobe's pricing power over time, a cheap multiple can stay cheap. But at nine times earnings, an enormous amount of that pessimism is already in the price; you are being paid well to take the other side. Risk around 50%, almost all of it the AI-competition question. Analysis, not advice.
ADBE trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (34 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $277. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-09Markup$257.26-5.5%Entry 12
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 5.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (34 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $277. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-08Markup$272.22+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (34 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $277. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-06Markup$272.22+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (34 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $275. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-05Markup$272.22+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (34 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $275. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-04Markup$272.22+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (34 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $275. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-03Markup$272.22+5.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (34 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $275. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-20Markup$259.32+9.3%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 9.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (32 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $282. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-20Markup$237.25+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (32 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $282. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-18Markup$237.25-5.6%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 5.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (32 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $282. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
