NAS10030,808+1.00%S&P7,723+0.73%GOLD$4,196+0.81%BTC$86,156−0.37%VIX16.35+6.79%live tape · as of 09:01 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Internet Retail
Alibaba Group
9988.HK · HKEX · HKD · Market cap $2.67T
Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses in the People's Republic of China and internationally.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price112.60 HKD
Fair value138.32
Ethical score88.5/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-19Read Markdown118.80-5.2% to today ✓
2026-08-20Read Markup118.80-5.2% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution118.80-5.2% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Alibaba Group holds its Markdown at $112.60. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 37 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 37 days
Price at the screen
$112.60
Valuation
20.22 trailing · 14.69 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 88.5
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
13.75%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 13.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
8.06%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 8.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.73%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 1.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.12%
Below 5%
Only 1.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Alibaba clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 14%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 1% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 23% discount to our $138.32 fair value, 1.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in HKD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 22.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it gives us pause
At 14.7x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. Our fair value sits at $138.32, below where it trades today.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Hong Kong and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
9988.HK trades on HKEX (the company is based in Hong Kong). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown$112.60-5.2%Entry 8
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (26 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $185.
2026-09-19Markdown · changed$118.80+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (26 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $185.
2026-08-20Markup · changed$118.80+0.0%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (26 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $185.
2026-07-20Distribution$118.80+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (26 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $185.
2026-07-18Distribution$118.80+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (26 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $185.
2026-07-16Distribution$118.80+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (26 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $185.
2026-07-03Distribution$118.80+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$118.80Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.