Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price3,561.00 JPY
Fair value2,040.35
Ethical score70.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown3,561.00+0.0% to today
2026-08-03Read Markup2,607.00+36.6% to today ✓
2026-07-19Read Distribution2,607.00+36.6% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Shiseido holds its Markdown at $3,561.00. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 23 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 23 days
Price at the screen
$3,561.00
Valuation
N/A trailing · 28.72 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.51
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
25.50%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 25.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
7.61%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 7.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
20.14%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 20.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.78%
Below 5%
Only 0.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Shiseido clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 26%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $2,040.35 fair value estimate, 1.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in JPY, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 42.7% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 17 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits −17% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it gives us pause
At 28.7x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. It trades 43% above our $2,040.35 fair value, so you would be buying at a premium, not a discount.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Japan and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
4911.T trades on TSE (the company is based in Japan). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 36.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $3281. Since the last review it its composite score eased.
2026-09-04Markup$2,607.00+0.0%Entry 13
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $3281.
2026-08-05Markup$2,607.00+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $3281. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-04Markup$2,607.00+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $3281. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-03Markup · changed$2,607.00+0.0%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $3281. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-02Distribution$2,607.00+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $3281. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-01Distribution$2,607.00+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $3281. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-31Distribution$2,607.00+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $3281. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-30Distribution$2,607.00+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $3281. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-19Distribution$2,607.00+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $3281.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
What Holding Actually Paid · Price Plus Dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$3,348.00
-24.5%
·
$755
-24.5%
2 months
$3,367.00
-24.9%
·
$751
-24.9%
3 months
$2,977.00
-15.1%
·
$850
-15.1%
6 months
$2,416.79
+4.6%
$20.00
$1,055
+5.5%
1 year
$2,472.79
+2.3%
$40.00
$1,039
+3.9%
2 years
$4,939.75
-48.8%
$80.00
$528
-47.2%
3 years
$6,318.31
-60.0%
$140.00
$422
-57.8%
5 years
$7,624.76
-66.8%
$290.00
$370
-63.0%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Ledger's Promise
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever 4911.T does next, these words stay.
Shiseido · 4911.T · Markdown · $3,561.00
Recorded 2026-09-18 · before the outcome · scored mechanically