Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price74.00 HKD
Fair value43.68
Ethical score78.6/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-25Read Markdown76.25-3.0% to today ✓
2026-08-19Read Accumulation76.25-3.0% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Meituan holds its Markdown at $74.00. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 7 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 7 days
Price at the screen
$74.00
Valuation
0.00 trailing · 13.84 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 78.6
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
24.97%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 25.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
30.78%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 30.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.96%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 1.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.03%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Meituan clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 25%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $43.68 fair value estimate, 2.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in HKD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 41.0% above the base estimate.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it gives us pause
At 13.8x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. It trades 41% above our $43.68 fair value, so you would be buying at a premium, not a discount.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to China and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
3690.HK trades on HKEX (the company is based in China). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown$74.00-3.0%Entry 15
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $111.
2026-08-27Markdown$76.25+0.0%Entry 14
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $111. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-26Markdown$76.25+0.0%Entry 13
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $111. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-25Markdown · changed$76.25+0.0%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $111. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24Accumulation$76.25+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $111. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-23Accumulation$76.25+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $111. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-22Accumulation$76.25+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $111. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-21Accumulation$76.25+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $111. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-20Accumulation$76.25+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $111. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $111.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.