An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Vodafone Group Public Limited Company provides telecommunication services in Germany, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, Turkey, and South Africa.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $16.00
Vodafone Group plc ADR holds its Markup at $16.00.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-06
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 13 days
Price
$16.00
Valuation
N/A trailing · 9.05 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.33
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$16.00
N/A P/E · 9.05 fwd
Our fair value
$14.48
10% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$13.05
-18% to current
Target low $11.43Analyst target rangeTarget high $17.21
▲ current $16.00 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$16.00
you are here
Conservative
$14.15
-12%
Analyst avg
$13.05
-18%
Our fair value
$14.48
-10%
Analyst high
$17.21
+8%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Profit margin
-0.98%
Debt to equity
100.15
Analyst consensus
Underperform · 4 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its debt ratio. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 40.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 8.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Vodafone trades rich despite thin returns
Picture a household paying the same bill each month yet watching its provider struggle to turn that cash into lasting profit. Vodafone sits in that spot, offering mobile and fixed lines across Europe and beyond, yet the market price of $15.74 already exceeds our fair value of $13.68. A forward P/E of 9.8x looks cheap until the -1% profit margin and zero ROE show the earnings are not really there.
We pass because the narrow moat cannot protect returns when competition stays fierce and growth stays modest. Four analysts already mark the shares underperform with a $13 median target, and the ethical screen offers no offset for the weak operating numbers.
Currency moves, regulatory pressure on spectrum costs and the constant need to invest in networks add real downside that a low multiple does not fully capture. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (4 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $13. Entered 2026-07-18 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Distribution$15.53+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (4 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-03Distribution$15.53+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$15.53Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$16.02
-6.1%
$0.28
$957
-4.3%
2 months
$15.40
-2.3%
$0.28
$995
-0.5%
3 months
$14.05
+7.1%
$0.28
$1,091
+9.1%
6 months
$12.31
+22.3%
$0.28
$1,245
+24.5%
1 year
$9.45
+59.2%
$0.53
$1,648
+64.8%
2 years
$8.22
+83.1%
$1.03
$1,956
+95.6%
3 years
$7.70
+95.4%
$1.98
$2,210
+121.0%
5 years
$12.70
+18.5%
$4.47
$1,537
+53.7%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever VOD does next, these words stay.
Vodafone Group plc ADR · VOD · Markup · $16.00
Recorded 2026-08-06 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
