Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price45.05 USD
Fair value45.04
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-08Read Markup46.46-3.0% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution47.80-5.8% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Oge Energy Corp holds its Distribution at $45.05. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$45.05
Valuation
19.76 trailing · 17.30 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.51
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
39.39%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 39.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
2.42%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 2.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 0.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +13% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Reliable Power That Fails to Spark Returns
Picture a regulated utility that keeps the lights on across the Midwest. OGE Energy delivers steady electricity from coal, gas, wind and solar, yet it offers investors little beyond that basic service. Revenue edges up just 1 percent a year while the business earns a modest 10 percent return on equity and carries only a weak competitive moat.
At $48.70 the shares sit 9 percent above our fair value of $44.53, and a forward multiple of 18.7 times leaves scant margin for error. Analysts rate the stock a hold with a median target near $50, but the combination of slow growth and thin returns explains why the opportunity rating sits at none despite an ethical screen that clears.
The real concern lies in rising interest rates that lift borrowing costs for capital-heavy utilities and in any regulatory squeeze on allowed returns. A weak moat offers little protection if those pressures mount. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
OGE trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-08Markup · changed$46.46-1.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $50.
2026-08-07Distribution$47.26-1.1%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $50.
2026-07-18Distribution$47.80+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $50.
2026-07-03Distribution$47.80+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$47.80Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
