Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 17:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
ArcelorMittal holds its Accumulation at $74.51. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 10 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 10 days
Price at the screen
$74.51
Valuation
31.31 trailing · 10.02 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.76
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
13.73%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 13.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.36%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
9.08%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 9.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.46%
Below 5%
Only 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 3.3% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +9% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Steel giant priced like a bargain but isn't
When construction booms or car plants ramp up, steel demand surges, then fades just as quickly when the cycle turns. ArcelorMittal trades at 9.2 times forward earnings with revenue growth of just 4 percent, profit margins at 5 percent and return on equity also at 5 percent, yet our fair value sits level with the current price and the opportunity rating is none.
The low multiple is the warning sign, not the bargain. In cyclical sectors peak earnings often flatten the ratio right before volumes and prices fall, leaving investors with a narrow moat business that cannot compound through the downturn.
Analyst targets point higher but offer no margin of safety once the cycle is factored in. Ethical screen passes, yet that alone creates no investment case here.
Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Luxembourg and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MT trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Luxembourg). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 9.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 47% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 112%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $67.
2026-08-06Markup$67.53-4.6%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 4.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 47% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 112%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $67.
2026-07-18Markup$70.81+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 47% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 112%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $67.
2026-07-03Markup$70.81+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$70.81Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.