Screened 2026-09-01 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Alamos Gold Inc holds its Markup at $34.92. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-01
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$34.92
Valuation
12.52 trailing · 11.43 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.33
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
3.49%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 3.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.92%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.46%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.82%
Below 5%
Only 0.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-01 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 0.7% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +25% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-01 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gold miner numbers shine but cycle warns
Think of gold prices as a wild tide that lifts miners one year and strands them the next. Alamos shows 79% revenue growth, 51% profit margins and 26% ROE, all at a forward multiple of 8.7 times with a narrow moat and an ethical pass.
Those figures point to a business that looks undervalued against our fair value and carries a strong buy consensus from analysts. The margin of safety sits near 29% on current pricing.
Gold mining stays a cyclical trap though, where low multiples often mark peak earnings rather than a bargain. Metal prices and currency moves can erase gains fast. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AGI trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-21Markup · changed$32.85+16.2%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 16.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $56.
2026-07-20Distribution$28.26-19.7%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 19.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $56.
2026-07-18Distribution$35.20+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $56.
2026-07-16Distribution$35.20+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (4 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $56.
2026-07-03Distribution$35.20+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$35.20Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
