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The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas Drilling
Valaris Limited
VAL · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $5.7B · 3,800 employees
Valaris Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides offshore contract drilling services in Brazil, the United Kingdom, Gulf of America, Australia, Angola, and internationally.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price81.79 USD
Fair value50.91
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-16Read Markdown83.73-2.3% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Distribution89.95-9.1% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Valaris Limited holds its Distribution at $81.79. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 55 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 55 days
Price at the screen
$81.79
Valuation
6.17 trailing · 11.44 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.94
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
21.85%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 21.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
19.29%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 19.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
2.99%
Below 5%
Only 3.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 37.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −27% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Offshore drillers chase cycles that rarely last
Oil rigs look busy when crude prices spike, yet the rigs themselves sit idle for years once demand fades. Valaris trades at a 10.5 times forward earnings multiple with a 45 percent profit margin and 37 percent return on equity, but revenue has already fallen 25 percent and the shares sit 33 percent above our fair value of 51 dollars. The market is paying for peak-cycle earnings that history shows do not hold.
Because this is a classic cyclical business the low multiple is not a bargain. It is a warning that margins and utilisation will compress when the next downturn arrives, and nine analysts already reflect that reality with a 60 dollar median target and a hold rating. An unknown moat leaves little protection once competitors add capacity again.
The ethical screen clears, yet the combination of stretched valuation and revenue contraction leaves no margin of safety. We pass. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Bermuda and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
VAL trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Bermuda). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-16Markdown · changed$83.73+8.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 8.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 34% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 100%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $70.
2026-08-16Distribution$77.21-14.2%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 14.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 34% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 100%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $70.
2026-07-18Distribution$89.95+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 34% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 100%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $70.
2026-07-03Distribution$89.95+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$89.95Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
