NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,416+0.37%BTC$81,118+6.17%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 15:00 UTC
The Screen · Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Two Harbors Investment Corp.
TWO · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $1.3B · 486 employees
Two Harbors Investment Corp.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
12.18 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-07
Screened 2026-09-07 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Two Harbors Investment Corp. holds its Markdown at $12.18. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 10 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-07
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 10 days
Price at the screen
$12.18
Valuation
N/A trailing · 10.34 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.05
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: mortgage
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: mortgage
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-07 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 0.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus None. The average target sits −1% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model and the Street both land near today's price: fairly valued, with no strong edge either way.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-07 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Mortgage REITs Hide Losses Behind Ethical Red Lines
Every time a household signs a mortgage the cash flows get sliced and repackaged into securities that carry real social weight. Two Harbors sits in the middle of that chain, yet it fails our ethical screen outright because the mortgage sector itself is off limits. The numbers do not rescue the case either. Revenue has jumped but profit margins sit at minus 69 percent and return on equity is minus 18 percent, so the low forward multiple of 10.3 times looks more like a warning than a bargain.
We pass for two clear reasons. The ethical block is non negotiable and the business shows no durable edge, with an unknown moat and an analyst consensus that simply says hold at a price matching the current level. Even the thin margin of safety to our fair value does not change the picture once the sector screen is applied.
Cyclical mortgage exposure adds another layer of risk, where earnings can swing sharply with interest rates and housing turnover. Peak cycle multiples often look cheap right before they compress further. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TWO trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-15Markdown$12.18+0.9%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-08-15Markdown · changed$12.07-2.2%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-07-18Markup$12.34+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 28%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-07-03Markup$12.34+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$12.34Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
