The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $17.
Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. SPH
Clears the common standard
An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Suburban Propane Partners, L.P., through its subsidiaries, engages in the retail marketing and distribution of propane, renewable propane, renewable natural gas, fuel oil, and refined fuels in the United States.
read at $18.12
Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. holds its Distribution at $18.12.
- PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
- INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
- SCScreen · passes the values gate
- edge confirmed
- edge broken
- edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
The investor read · the season, not the day
| Phase | Distribution · caution |
| Quantitative state | The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 381 days |
| Price | $18.12 |
| Valuation | 9.24 trailing · 9.20 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | PASS · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 0.38 |
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
| Revenue growth | -6.20% |
| Profit margin | 9.57% |
| Debt to equity | 183.44 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold · 1 covering |
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
It depends which standard you follow. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor, and on this company they disagree. Here is how it did on each:
Used by most halal investing apps ✗ DOES NOT PASS
The one Titan applies ✓ PASSES
Why the two disagree. They fall out over one thing only: the company’s debt. Our stricter standard measures that debt against what the company owns, and it works out too high to pass. The common standard measures the same debt against what the company is worth on the stock market, where it works out low enough to pass. Every other check, the two agree on. So in practice, most halal apps would treat this as fine to hold, while our stricter view would not — and which line you follow is between you and your scholar.
What these two standards are, and how they differ →
- Business activity Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. Pass
- Debt load Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows. Against market value it is 113.5%, under the 30% line the market-value standard uses — so that standard clears it. Divergent
- Interest-bearing cash Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit. Fail
- Receivables Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit. Fail
- Revenue purity Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line. Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Propane distributor looks cheap on paper only
Winter heating bills hit every household the same way, yet Suburban Propane shows why energy distribution rarely rewards patient capital. Revenue fell 6 percent last year while the shares trade at 9.2 times forward earnings, well above our fair value of 14.26 dollars against a current price of 18.12. A 19 percent return on equity and 10 percent profit margin look solid until the single analyst hold rating and 17 dollar median target remind us the market already prices in modest prospects.
The low multiple is the classic cyclical trap rather than a bargain. Peak earnings from cold snaps or supply squeezes shrink fast when temperatures moderate or crude prices drop, leaving investors with shrinking cash flows and a still-elevated entry price. Ethical screens clear, yet the absence of any opportunity rating confirms the arithmetic does not support ownership.
Currency swings and weather remain outside management control, and the unknown competitive moat offers little defence when volumes contract. Forward revenue trends already point down, so the apparent value evaporates precisely when the cycle turns.
Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 9.2x very cheap relative to earnings |
| Trailing P/E | 9.2x very cheap relative to earnings |
| Revenue growth | -6.2% revenue is shrinking |
| Profit margin | 9.6% thin but positive margins |
| Return on equity | 18.8% a solid return on shareholder capital |
| Debt to equity | 1.83 a meaningful debt load worth watching |
| Current ratio | 1.08 adequate liquidity, worth monitoring |
| Beta | 0.38 barely tracks the market's swings |
| Market cap | $1.2B |
| Employees | 3,190 |
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Related securities · others in SPH's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
SPH trades on the NYSE. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $19.61 | -2.5% | · | $976 | -2.5% |
| 2 months | $19.41 | -1.4% | $0.33 | $1,002 | +0.2% |
| 3 months | $20.29 | -5.7% | $0.33 | $959 | -4.1% |
| 6 months | $18.41 | +3.9% | $0.65 | $1,074 | +7.4% |
| 1 year | $16.80 | +13.9% | $1.30 | $1,216 | +21.6% |
| 2 years | $18.53 | +3.2% | $2.60 | $1,173 | +17.3% |
| 3 years | $12.19 | +56.9% | $3.90 | $1,889 | +88.9% |
| 5 years | $10.61 | +80.4% | $6.50 | $2,416 | +141.6% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.