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The Screen · Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
Sonida Senior Living, Inc.
SNDA · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $1.9B · 3,423 employees
Sonida Senior Living, Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
39.43 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-16
Screened 2026-09-16 · the tape above runs as of 07:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Sonida Senior Living, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $39.43. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 34 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-16
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 34 days
Price at the screen
$39.43
Valuation
N/A trailing · -23.90 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.75
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
81.64%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 81.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.51%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.55%
Below 5%
Only 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-16 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 20.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +20% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-16 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Senior homes operator grows fast but stays loss making
Picture a care home chain racing to add residents and fill beds while still losing money on almost every one of them. Sonida shows 38 percent revenue growth yet posts a 27 percent negative profit margin and a 20 percent negative return on equity. At a forward multiple of minus 92 times it is priced for a recovery that has not appeared in the numbers, and our fair value sits just below the current share price.
The business clears our ethical screen, but that is not enough to create an opportunity. Four analysts see the shares worth around the same level they trade at today, leaving no meaningful margin of safety. Unknown competitive position and continued cash burn mean any improvement must come from higher occupancy and tighter costs, neither of which is guaranteed.
Senior living remains exposed to labour shortages, rising wages and shifts in resident demand. A single downturn in occupancy could widen losses quickly. The market is already assuming a turnaround that the reported results have yet to deliver.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SNDA trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $40.
2026-08-13Markup · changed$39.05+11.4%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 11.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $40.
2026-07-18Markdown$35.05+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $40.
2026-07-03Markdown$35.05+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$35.05Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
