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The Screen · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Redwire Corporation
RDW · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $2.6B · 1,400 employees
Redwire Corporation provides critical space solutions and space infrastructure for government and commercial customers in the United States, Europe, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
10.53 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-04
Screened 2026-09-04 · the tape above runs as of 19:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Redwire Corporation holds its Markdown at $10.53. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 24 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-04
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 24 days
Price at the screen
$10.53
Valuation
N/A trailing · -35.69 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
3.09
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 42.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +42% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Space contracts hit ethical wall at Redwire
Redwire builds the sensors and hardware that keep satellites and defence systems running. Growth looks solid at 58 percent, and analysts see a path to $15 from the current price. Yet the ethical screen blocks any further look because aerospace and defence work sits on the prohibited list.
The business still loses money at scale. Profit margins sit at minus 81 percent and return on equity is minus 49 percent, so the forward multiple of minus 20.6 times simply reflects ongoing losses rather than value. Unknown competitive protection leaves little cushion if contracts shift or delays mount.
High cash burn and dependence on government budgets add real volatility on top of the ethical block. The screen exists for exactly these cases. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
RDW trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-11Markdown · changed$10.53-0.9%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $14.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 29.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-18Markup$15.12+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-03Markup$15.12+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$15.12Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
