Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price44.20 USD
Fair value33.62
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-06Read Accumulation45.86-3.6% to today
2026-08-06Read Distribution41.44+6.7% to today
2026-07-02Read Markdown46.93-5.8% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Noble Corporation plc holds its Markdown at $44.20. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 263 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 263 days
Price at the screen
$44.20
Valuation
47.02 trailing · 21.67 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.93
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
26.24%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 26.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.09%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.61%
Below 5%
Only 0.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 23.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +13% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Offshore drillers chase cycles that rarely last
Picture an oil rig bobbing in the North Sea while crude prices swing like a pendulum. Noble runs those rigs across the world yet still posts falling revenue and an 8 percent profit margin. At 17.3 times forward earnings the shares sit above our fair value with negative margin of safety, so the numbers give no reason to step in.
The business clears our ethical screen, yet the cyclical nature of offshore drilling turns any apparent value into a trap. Low returns on equity at 5 percent and shrinking top-line figures show earnings are already past their peak for this cycle. A buy rating from analysts does not change the fact that multiples compress fast when utilisation drops.
Risk sits in the energy price swings and the capital intensity of the fleet. When the next downturn arrives, today's earnings multiple will look expensive rather than cheap. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NE trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 10.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 69%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $50.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 11.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 69%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $50.
2026-07-18Markdown$46.93+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 69%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $50.
2026-07-03Markdown$46.93+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$46.93Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
