Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price20.54 USD
Fair value25.35
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-23Read Accumulation20.52+0.1% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Distribution21.56-4.7% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The Gap, Inc. holds its Markup at $20.54. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 38 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 38 days
Price at the screen
$20.54
Valuation
6.19 trailing · 7.80 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
2.06
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
63.86%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 63.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
34.17%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 34.2% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 23.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 19 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +31% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cheap multiples on Gap hide a debt problem
Walk past any Gap store on a busy high street and you see racks of familiar denim and logos that still pull in steady traffic. Revenue edges up just 1 percent while the business clears a 6 percent profit margin and delivers 28 percent ROE, numbers that make the 7.8 times forward earnings look tempting next to the $20.35 share price and the $26.83 fair value.
We pass. The ethical screen flags the debt ratio first, and the cyclical label adds a second clear warning. Low multiples on consumer-facing names often reflect peak-cycle earnings rather than a bargain, especially when revenue barely moves and the moat sits only at moderate.
Eighteen analysts still lean buy with a $26 median target, yet the combination of leverage concerns and cycle exposure keeps the risk squarely on the balance sheet. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GAP trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-27Accumulation$20.36+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $30. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-26Accumulation$20.36+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $30. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-25Accumulation$20.36-0.8%Entry 7
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $30. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24Accumulation$20.52+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $30. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $30. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-30Distribution$20.35-5.6%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $30.
2026-07-18Distribution$21.56+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $30.
2026-07-03Distribution$21.56+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$21.56Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
