Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price89.14 USD
Fair value140.67
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-25Read Markup100.86-11.6% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution97.39-8.5% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Colliers International Group Inc. holds its Distribution at $89.14. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 39 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-16
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 39 days
Price at the screen
$89.14
Valuation
42.25 trailing · 10.46 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.25
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
33.67%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 33.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.10%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
15.28%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 15.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-16 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 57.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +63% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-16 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Global Property Services With Razor Thin Margins
Picture a firm that arranges office towers and industrial parks across continents yet keeps just one penny of every pound earned. Colliers shows 15 percent revenue growth and a forward multiple of 12.1 times, yet its 1 percent profit margin and 9 percent return on equity reveal a business that must run very hard simply to stand still.
We pass despite the 39 percent gap between the current price and our fair value estimate. The opportunity rating sits at none because an unknown moat and persistently low returns leave little room for durable outperformance once property cycles turn. Analyst targets cluster near 148 dollars, but those forecasts rarely adjust for the structural limits already visible in the numbers.
Real estate services remain exposed to transaction volumes that can drop sharply when interest rates stay high or leasing demand cools. Currency swings across its markets add another layer of volatility that thin margins cannot easily absorb. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CIGI trades on Nasdaq (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-25Markup · changed$100.86-1.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148.
2026-07-24Distribution$101.92+4.7%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148.
2026-07-18Distribution$97.39+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148.
2026-07-03Distribution$97.39+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$97.39Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
