Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price39.80 USD
Fair value53.73
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-24Read Markdown41.50-4.1% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Accumulation61.19-35.0% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Century Aluminum Company holds its Markdown at $39.80. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 54 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-16
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 54 days
Price at the screen
$39.80
Valuation
6.87 trailing · 3.30 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.99
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
24.16%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 24.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.76%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.36%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-16 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +72% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-16 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Aluminum producer looks cheap but cycles bite hard
Picture a smelter running flat out while metal prices swing like a wrecking ball. Century Aluminum shows a forward multiple of 3.8 times, a 14 percent profit margin and 32 percent return on equity, yet revenue growth sits at just 2 percent in a business that lives or dies by the aluminium price. The low multiple and margin of safety look tempting on paper, but this is exactly where cyclical traps form when earnings sit near peak levels.
We pass. The opportunity rating stays at none because the numbers reflect a commodity upswing rather than durable advantage. Unknown moat and minimal top-line growth mean any valuation edge can vanish the moment demand cools or energy costs spike, turning the apparent bargain into a value trap dressed in low multiples.
Ethical screens clear, which is a plus, yet the structural exposure to aluminium cycles and input volatility keeps the risk profile elevated. Peak earnings often coincide with the lowest multiples, and nothing here suggests this cycle behaves differently. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CENX trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-24Markdown$48.17+16.1%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 16.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 196%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 42%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $80.
2026-07-24Markdown · changed$41.50-32.2%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 32.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 196%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 42%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $80.
2026-07-18Accumulation$61.19+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 61% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 196%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 42%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $80.
2026-07-03Accumulation$61.19+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$61.19Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
