OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $193.93 fair value estimate, 12.50% revenue growth.
Read at
$197.86
22.87 P/E · 10.52 fwd
Our fair value
$193.93
2% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$229.00
+16% to current
Target low $170.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $275.00
▲ current $197.86 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
-
Business activity
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
-
Debt load
Interest-bearing debt is 33.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
-
Interest-bearing cash
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
-
Receivables
Money owed to the company is 1.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
-
Revenue purity
Only -3.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.
Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Why it gives us pause
At 10.5x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. It trades 2% above our $193.93 fair value, so you would be buying at a premium, not a discount.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to India and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-28
Distribution $197.86
+0.0% Entry 10
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (35 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $225. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27
Distribution $197.86
+0.0% Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (35 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $225. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26
Distribution $197.86
+0.0% Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (35 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $225. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25
Distribution · changed $197.86
+0.0% Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (35 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $225. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24
Markdown $197.86
+0.0% Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (35 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $225. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23
Markdown $197.86
+0.0% Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (35 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $225. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22
Markdown $197.86
+0.0% Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (35 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $225. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18
Markdown $197.86
+0.0% Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (35 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $225.
2026-07-03
Markdown $197.86
+0.0% Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02
Markdown $197.86
Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.