NAS10028,945+0.02%S&P7,552−0.45%GOLD$4,410+0.51%BTC$76,720+0.75%VIX15.47−12.65%live tape · as of 15:00 UTC
The Screen · Industrials · Waste Management
Republic Services
RSG · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $67.9B · 42,000 employees
Republic Services, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, offers environmental services in the United States and Canada.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
221.63 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Republic Services holds its Accumulation at $221.63. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 206 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 206 days
Price at the screen
$221.63
Valuation
31.39 trailing · 27.51 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.40
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
40.17%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 40.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
2.37%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
5.74%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 5.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.05%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $195.55 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 4.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 11.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 24 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +11% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Waste collector priced beyond its modest growth
Republic Services collects the rubbish that cities and factories generate week after week, yet the shares price the business like a premium compounder. Forward earnings sit at 27.6 times while revenue edges up only 3 percent a year and margins rest at 13 percent, so the 10 percent premium to our fair value leaves no margin of safety.
The ethical screen fails on debt levels alone, which rules the name out regardless of the moderate moat or 18 percent return on equity. Steady cash flows from waste disposal do not offset the stretched multiple or the absence of any ethical pass.
Twenty-four analysts may still cluster around a 250 dollar target, but the numbers show a business valued for perfection that its growth cannot deliver. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
RSG trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $244.
2026-08-11Distribution$207.02-1.4%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $244.
2026-07-18Distribution$210.04+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $244.
2026-07-03Distribution$210.04+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$210.04Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
