Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.17, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price259.61 USD
Fair value227.38
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-15Read Accumulation227.52+14.1% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markup238.08+9.0% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 7% rise in 5 weeks
2026-08-28Read Distribution222.97+16.4% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 25% slide in 8 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup295.96-12.3% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
NXP Semiconductors holds its Markup at $259.61. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 56 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-30
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 56 days
Price at the screen
$259.61
Valuation
20.93 trailing · 14.52 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.81
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
46.02%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 46.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.91%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.18%
Below 5%
Only 1.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
NXP Semiconductors's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 46% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-01. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades above our $227.38 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 19.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-30 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 12.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 29 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +16% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $227.38, with a range of $157.50 to $261.49, dated to the 2026-10-30 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Chipmaker looks cheap but hides cyclical traps
Every phone, car and factory machine needs chips, yet NXP trades at a forward multiple of 14.9 times earnings with revenue growth of 12 percent and a 21 percent profit margin. The business carries a strong moat and 26 percent ROE, yet our fair value sits 14 percent below the current price of 266 dollars, so we pass. The ethical screen also flags excessive debt, ruling the name out regardless of analyst targets near 310 dollars.
This is a classic cyclical value trap. Peak cycle earnings often flatter the multiple and mask the sharp drops that follow when auto and industrial demand turns. Strong returns on equity can vanish quickly once volumes fall, leaving investors holding inventory and capacity that suddenly looks expensive.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Netherlands and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NXPI trades on a US exchange (the company is based in Netherlands). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-29Accumulation$234.92+1.7%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $302.
2026-10-22Accumulation$231.09+1.6%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $302.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $302.
2026-10-02Markup · changed$238.08+6.8%Entry 13
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $302.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 16.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $302.
2026-07-27Markup$266.53+0.0%Entry 11
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $302. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$266.53+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $302. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup$266.53+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $302. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Markup$266.53+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $302. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Markup$266.53+0.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $302. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.