NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,384−0.08%BTC$76,220+0.09%VIX15.44−12.82%live tape · as of 23:00 UTC · 17 Sep
The Screen · Technology · Semiconductors
NXP Semiconductors
NXPI · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $56.5B · 32,169 employees
NXP Semiconductors N.V.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
223.87 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · 17 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
NXP Semiconductors holds its Markdown at $223.87. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 18 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 18 days
Price at the screen
$223.87
Valuation
19.12 trailing · 12.37 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.82
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
46.02%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 46.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.91%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.18%
Below 5%
Only 1.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 3% discount to our $231.45 fair value, strong competitive moat, 19.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 3.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 29 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +38% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Chipmaker looks cheap but hides cyclical traps
Every phone, car and factory machine needs chips, yet NXP trades at a forward multiple of 14.9 times earnings with revenue growth of 12 percent and a 21 percent profit margin. The business carries a strong moat and 26 percent ROE, yet our fair value sits 14 percent below the current price of 266 dollars, so we pass. The ethical screen also flags excessive debt, ruling the name out regardless of analyst targets near 310 dollars.
This is a classic cyclical value trap. Peak cycle earnings often flatter the multiple and mask the sharp drops that follow when auto and industrial demand turns. Strong returns on equity can vanish quickly once volumes fall, leaving investors holding inventory and capacity that suddenly looks expensive.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Netherlands and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NXPI trades on a US exchange (the company is based in Netherlands). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 16.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $302.
2026-07-27Markup$266.53+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $302. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$266.53+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $302. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup$266.53+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $302. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Markup$266.53+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $302. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Markup$266.53+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $302. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Markup$266.53+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $302. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Markup$266.53+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $302. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Markup$266.53-9.9%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 9.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $302. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$295.96+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (31 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $302.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.