Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · 17 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Monolithic Power Systems holds its Markdown at $1,218.50. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 33 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 33 days
Price at the screen
$1,218.50
Valuation
74.30 trailing · 34.94 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 87.7
Beta
1.66
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
0.48%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
3.75%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
32.30%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 32.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.04%
Below 5%
Only 1.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OVERVALUED: it trades above our $1,057.33 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 47.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 13.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +49% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Power chip firm priced beyond its cycle
Picture a supplier of voltage converters riding strong demand from data centres and cars. Monolithic Power Systems shows 26% revenue growth, 23% margins and 20% ROE, yet our fair value sits 21% below the current price and the forward multiple stands at 42.9 times. The market loves the story and the analyst target of 1805 dollars, but the numbers point to a clear overvaluation.
This is a cyclical semiconductor business. Peak earnings often coincide with the lowest multiples, yet here the multiple is already stretched. A moderate moat offers some protection, yet any slowdown in end markets would compress both growth and the rating quickly.
The ethical screen is passed with no red flags. Even so the valuation leaves little room for the normal swings of the cycle. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MPWR trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 54% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 104%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $1797.
2026-07-30Distribution$1,333.81+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 54% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 104%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $1797. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Distribution$1,333.81+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 54% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 104%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $1797. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Distribution$1,333.81+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 54% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 104%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $1797. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Distribution$1,333.81+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 54% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 104%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $1797. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Distribution$1,333.81+1.7%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 54% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 104%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $1797. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Distribution$1,312.00+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 54% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 104%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $1797. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Distribution$1,312.00-11.4%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 11.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 54% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 104%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $1797. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Distribution$1,481.05+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 54% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 104%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (14 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $1797.
2026-07-03Distribution$1,481.05+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
