Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · 17 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Novo Nordisk A/S holds its Distribution at $45.16. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 44 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 44 days
Price at the screen
$45.16
Valuation
11.10 trailing · 13.23 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.34
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
24.12%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 24.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
4.87%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 4.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.08%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 1.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.03%
Below 5%
Only 1.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades above our $38.79 fair value estimate, 2.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 14.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +0% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Affordable Medicine for a Growing Global Demand
Imagine a world where the rising tide of obesity and diabetes doesn't overwhelm healthcare systems; Novo Nordisk is at the helm, navigating this challenge. With a robust presence in obesity and diabetes care along with a venture into rare disease treatment, Novo Nordisk is well-positioned to address a growing global health demand. Its forward P/E of 13.5x and a 2% revenue growth might seem modest, but its 35% profit margin and 60% ROE highlight operational efficiency and financial strength. Why it stands out is not just its financial metrics but also its ethical pass, a rare combination in the pharmaceutical sector.
However, while Novo Nordisk offers an enticing margin of safety at -16% below our fair value of $38.85, the 'hold' consensus from 12 analysts and a median target price of $45 suggest a cautious market sentiment. The risk here is understanding the market's hesitancy and the company's 'unknown' moat, which could imply a lack of clear competitive advantage. It's a reminder that despite strong financials, the pharmaceutical landscape is fraught with challenges and uncertainties.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Denmark and to currency swings; as a drug manufacturers - general name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NVO trades on NYSE (ADR) (the company is based in Denmark). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-05Markup · changed$46.14-5.4%Entry 11
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $47.
2026-08-05Accumulation$48.77+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $47. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-04Accumulation$48.77+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $47. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-03Accumulation$48.77+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $47. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-02Accumulation$48.77+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $47. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-01Accumulation$48.77+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $47. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-31Accumulation$48.77+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $47. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-30Accumulation$48.77+11.1%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 11.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $47. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Accumulation$43.88+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $47.
2026-07-03Accumulation$43.88+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
