NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,412+0.27%BTC$77,965+2.04%VIX15.48+0.26%live tape · as of 13:00 UTC
The Screen · Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - General
Lilly (Eli)
LLY · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $1.00T · 50,000 employees
Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets human pharmaceutical products in the United States, Europe, China, Japan, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
1,123.91 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Lilly (Eli) holds its Markdown at $1,123.91. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 56 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 56 days
Price at the screen
$1,123.91
Valuation
37.75 trailing · 23.78 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.50
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
37.79%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 37.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.59%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
22.25%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 22.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 8% discount to our $1,207.81 fair value, strong competitive moat, 47.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 7.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 29 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +22% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Lilly's High-Flying Numbers, but Ethical Cloud
Imagine a pharmaceutical powerhouse like Eli Lilly, developing life-changing drugs, but weighed down by a debt ratio that flunks our ethical screen. It's a stark contrast, much like the high-flying revenue growth of 48% against a debt-laden balance sheet. Why it stands out is the robust financial performance; a 34% profit margin and a whopping 102% return on equity. Yet, the market consensus, despite a 'buy' rating and a median target of $1372, is overlooking the ethical failings, a critical factor in our analysis.
The risk here is two-pronged; firstly, the ethical failing on debt ratios which could signal financial instability, and secondly, the possibility of a cyclical value trap given the forward P/E of 26.3x. While the numbers are impressive, the ethical failing is a red flag that can't be ignored, especially in an industry where trust and responsibility are paramount.
Despite the strong moat and the margin of safety being a slim -3%, indicating our fair value is just below the current price, the ethical failing is a deal-breaker. This is not a call to action but a sobering reminder that while Lilly's financials are stellar, the ethical lapse is a breach that can't be ignored. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: as a drug manufacturers - general name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LLY trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-04Markup$1,244.40+4.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1211. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-08-05Markup$1,196.03+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1211. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-04Markup$1,196.03+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1211. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-03Markup$1,196.03+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1211. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-02Markup$1,196.03+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1211. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-01Markup$1,196.03+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1211. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-31Markup$1,196.03+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1211. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-30Markup$1,196.03+5.7%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1211. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$1,131.42+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1211. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-03Markup$1,131.42+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
