Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price12.04 USD
Fair value19.38
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-27Read Distribution13.23-9.0% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup13.00-7.4% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Driven Brands Holdings Inc. holds its Markdown at $12.04. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 14 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-24
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 14 days
Price at the screen
$12.04
Valuation
12.16 trailing · 8.38 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.95
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
117.66%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 117.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
6.92%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Driven Brands's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 118% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 61% discount to our $19.38 fair value, weak competitive moat, 6.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-24 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 60.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +29% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-24 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Car Repairs Look Everyday But Debt Weighs Heavy
Picture the local garage chain that fixes your brakes or oils your engine every few months. Driven Brands sits behind many of those familiar names yet carries a debt load that already fails our ethical screen. That single red flag rules it out before any valuation debate begins.
The business shows an 8% revenue growth rate, 10% profit margins and 20% ROE, with shares trading at a forward multiple of 10.2x against a calculated fair value 40% higher. Still the moat is weak and ten analysts see little more than modest upside to $17. Low growth plus thin competitive protection leaves the cheap multiple looking more like a warning than an opportunity.
Cyclical consumer spending can turn quickly, and high leverage amplifies any slowdown in traffic through those workshops. We pass for the ethical breach on debt and the absence of durable advantages. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
DRVN trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Distribution$12.04-9.0%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 9.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $17.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 13.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $17.
2026-07-26Markup$15.22+17.1%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 17.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $17.
2026-07-18Markup$13.00+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $17.
2026-07-03Markup$13.00+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$13.00Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
