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The Screen · Financials · Banks - Diversified
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial
8316.T · TSE · JPY · Market cap $24.42T
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides banking, leasing, securities, consumer finance, and other services in Japan, the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Oceania.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
6,830.00 JPY
Screen close, 2026-09-18 · not a live quote Last reviewed 17 days ago
Screened 2026-09-18 · the tape above runs as of 11:17 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 6,830.00 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 4,655.15, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price6,830.00 JPY
Fair value4,655.15
Ethical score30.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-30Read Distribution6,406.00+6.6% to today
2026-07-20Read Markup6,406.00+6.6% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial holds its Distribution at $6,830.00. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$6,830.00
Valuation
16.58 trailing · 21.49 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.40
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Bank — FAIL on business activity
Fail
Debt load
10.61%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 10.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
24.68%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 24.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.08%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
46.15%
Below 5%
46.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $4,655.15 fair value estimate.
Fair value range in JPY, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 31.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits −6% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it gives us pause
At 21.5x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. It trades 32% above our $4,655.15 fair value, so you would be buying at a premium, not a discount.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Japan and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
8316.T trades on TSE (the company is based in Japan). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Distribution$6,830.00+6.6%Entry 14
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 6.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 78%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $6478.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 78%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $6478.
2026-07-31Markup$6,406.00+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 78%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $6478. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-30Markup$6,406.00+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 78%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $6478. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Markup$6,406.00+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 78%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $6478. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Markup$6,406.00+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 78%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $6478. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$6,406.00+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 78%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $6478. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup$6,406.00+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 78%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $6478. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Markup$6,406.00+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 78%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $6478. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Markup$6,406.00+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 78%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $6478.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
What Holding Actually Paid · Price Plus Dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$5,661.00
+10.0%
·
$1,100
+10.0%
2 months
$5,536.00
+12.5%
·
$1,125
+12.5%
3 months
$5,076.39
+22.7%
$79.00
$1,242
+24.2%
6 months
$4,898.11
+27.1%
$79.00
$1,287
+28.7%
1 year
$3,507.68
+77.5%
$157.00
$1,820
+82.0%
2 years
$3,224.96
+93.1%
$279.00
$2,017
+101.7%
3 years
$1,733.88
+259.1%
$369.00
$3,804
+280.4%
5 years
$1,060.68
+487.1%
$519.00
$6,360
+536.0%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Ledger's Promise
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever 8316.T does next, these words stay.
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial · 8316.T · Distribution · $6,830.00
Recorded 2026-09-18 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
