Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price122.00 SAR
Fair value87.43
Ethical score70.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-18Read Accumulation117.40+3.9% to today ✓
2026-08-19Read Markup117.40+3.9% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markdown117.40+3.9% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Saudi Kayan Petrochemical holds its Accumulation at $122.00. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 24 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 24 days
Price at the screen
$122.00
Valuation
28.31 trailing · 27.54 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.11
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio 46.1%
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
46.11%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 46.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
3.06%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
7.69%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 7.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.65%
Below 5%
Only 0.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Saudi Kayan Petrochemical's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 46% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $87.43 fair value estimate, 17.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in SAR, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 28.3% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +13% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it gives us pause
At 27.5x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. It trades 28% above our $87.43 fair value, so you would be buying at a premium, not a discount.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Saudi Arabia and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
4200.SR trades on TADAWUL (the company is based in Saudi Arabia). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Accumulation$122.00+3.9%Entry 8
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $138.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $138.
2026-08-19Markup · changed$117.40+0.0%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $138.
2026-07-19Markdown$117.40+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $138.
2026-07-18Markdown$117.40+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $138.
2026-07-15Markdown$117.40+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-03Markdown$117.40+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$117.40Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
What Holding Actually Paid · Price Plus Dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$117.10
+1.2%
·
$1,012
+1.2%
2 months
$130.60
-9.3%
·
$907
-9.3%
3 months
$119.00
-0.4%
·
$996
-0.4%
6 months
$127.23
-6.9%
$2.00
$947
-5.3%
1 year
$122.81
-3.5%
$2.00
$981
-1.9%
2 years
$118.42
+0.1%
$3.50
$1,030
+3.0%
3 years
$92.78
+27.7%
$4.25
$1,323
+32.3%
5 years
$47.44
+149.8%
$6.88
$2,643
+164.3%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The Ledger's Promise
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever 4200.SR does next, these words stay.
Saudi Kayan Petrochemical · 4200.SR · Accumulation · $122.00
Recorded 2026-09-21 · before the outcome · scored mechanically