Framework Journal · one stock, one dated entry

Recorded 2026-07-19 · Permanent

StoneCo Ltd. logoStoneCo Ltd. STNE

Clears the common standard

An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.

In plain words · StoneCo Ltd.

The label
Accumulation

read at $11.15

StoneCo Ltd. holds its Accumulation at $11.15.

PHINPOOPSC
  • PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Accumulation label
  • INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
  • POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
  • OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
  • SCScreen · passes the values gate
  • edge confirmed
  • edge broken
  • edge forming

Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.

The investor read · the season, not the day

As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
PhaseAccumulation
Quantitative stateThe statistical read favours the buyers, held for 40 days
Price$11.15
Valuation4.18 trailing · 4.68 forward price to earnings
Values screenPASS · score 70.0
Beta1.60

The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth

Read at
$11.15
4.18 P/E · 4.68 fwd
Our fair value
$21.16
90% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$16.93
+52% to current
Target low $8.82Analyst target rangeTarget high $22.71
▲ current $11.15 · | average target

Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going

$55.7$31.4$7.1TODAY5y agoPROJECTIONAnalyst high$22.71 +114%Our fair value$21.16 +100%Conservative$19.69 +86%Analyst avg$16.93 +60%

The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street

Current
$11.15
you are here
Conservative
$19.69
+77%
Analyst avg
$16.93
+52%
Our fair value
$21.16
+90%
Analyst high
$22.71
+104%

Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.

Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.

Revenue growth4.30%
Profit margin25.95%
Debt to equity133.64
Analyst consensusBuy · 16 covering

Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.

The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English

It depends which standard you follow. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor, and on this company they disagree. Here is how it did on each:

The common standard · AAOIFI
Used by most halal investing apps
✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard · asset-based
The one Titan applies
✓ PASSES

Why the two disagree. They fall out over one thing only: the company’s debt. Our stricter standard measures that debt against what the company owns, and it works out too high to pass. The common standard measures the same debt against what the company is worth on the stock market, where it works out low enough to pass. Every other check, the two agree on. So in practice, most halal apps would treat this as fine to hold, while our stricter view would not — and which line you follow is between you and your scholar.

What these two standards are, and how they differ →

  • Business activity Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. Pass
  • Debt load Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows. Against market value it is 605.3%, under the 30% line the market-value standard uses — so that standard clears it. Divergent
  • Interest-bearing cash Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit. Fail
  • Receivables Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit. Fail
  • Revenue purity Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line. Pass

Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.

The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean

Brazil merchants still shuffle cash through old pipes

StoneCo wires payments and digital banking into the daily grind of Brazilian merchants, from corner shops to online sellers. It clears transactions and offers prepayments where global card networks still stumble. The numbers look tidy on paper, with a 26% profit margin, 31% return on equity and a forward multiple of just 4.7 times, yet revenue is crawling along at only 4% a year.

We pass because the business shows no clear edge. An unknown moat and single-digit growth leave it exposed even at this depressed price. Analyst targets sit around 17 dollars against our own higher fair value, but the low growth and patchy competitive position outweigh any apparent bargain.

Brazil currency swings and regulatory shifts sit at the heart of the risk. A sudden policy change or economic slowdown can wipe out thin margins fast, and the unknown moat offers little defence. Analysis, not advice.

The fundamentals · plain-English read
Forward P/E4.7x
fairly priced for its growth rate
Trailing P/E4.2x
very cheap relative to earnings
Revenue growth4.3%
slow but positive growth
Profit margin25.9%
healthy profit margins
Return on equity30.7%
an exceptional return on shareholder capital
Debt to equity1.34
a meaningful debt load worth watching
Current ratio1.34
adequate liquidity, worth monitoring
Beta1.60
much more volatile than the market
Market cap$2.7B

The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Cayman Islands and to currency swings.

Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.

Related securities · others in STNE's space worth a look

Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.

Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are

STNE trades on Nasdaq (the company is based in Cayman Islands). As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.

The trader read · the latest dated commentary

The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18. Entered 2026-07-18 · Distribution

The dated journal · newest first, never edited

2026-07-18 Distribution $11.26 +0.0% Entry 3

The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18.

2026-07-03 Distribution $11.26 +0.0% Entry 2

The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.

2026-07-02 Distribution $11.26 Entry 1

The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.

Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.

What holding actually paid · price plus dividends

If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
PeriodPrice thenPrice returnDivs per share$1,000 becameTotal return
1 month $10.42 +1.7% · $1,017 +1.7%
2 months $11.62 -8.7% $2.53 $1,130 +13.0%
3 months $11.43 -7.3% $2.53 $1,148 +14.8%
6 months $12.58 -15.8% $2.53 $1,044 +4.4%
1 year $11.46 -7.5% $2.53 $1,146 +14.6%
2 years $10.85 -2.3% $2.53 $1,210 +21.0%
3 years $10.49 +1.0% $2.53 $1,251 +25.1%
5 years $52.31 -79.7% $2.53 $251 -74.9%

Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever STNE does next, these words stay.

StoneCo Ltd. · STNE · Accumulation · $11.15
Recorded 2026-07-19 · before the outcome · scored mechanically

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