Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 21:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Mueller Water Products, Inc. holds its Markdown at $22.81. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 177 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 177 days
Price at the screen
$22.81
Valuation
16.06 trailing · 14.23 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.01
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
24.56%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 24.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
34.93%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 34.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.94%
Below 5%
Only 0.9% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 27.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +36% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cities Cannot Run Without Steady Water Infrastructure
Every time a municipality fixes a leaking main or a new housing project connects to the grid, the valves, hydrants and meters have to come from somewhere. Mueller Water Products supplies those components across North America. The shares sit 23 percent below our fair value of 31.42 while delivering 21 percent return on equity and a 14 percent profit margin, yet the opportunity rating remains none.
Forward earnings sit at 16.2 times with revenue expanding just 6 percent a year. Six analysts carry a consensus buy and a 32 median target, and the business clears the ethical screen without issue. The combination points to a competent operator in a defensive niche rather than a mispriced compounder.
Construction and municipal budgets remain cyclical, and the unknown moat leaves room for competitors to chip away at margins over time. Modest top-line growth offers little cushion if spending slows. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MWA trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-06Markdown · changed$25.27-0.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $32.
2026-08-06Markup · changed$25.46-1.4%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $32.
2026-07-18Markdown$25.82+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $32.
2026-07-03Markdown$25.82+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$25.82Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
