Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.88, read 2026-11-05
Ethical passes the values gate
Price24.05 USD
Fair value26.48
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Accumulation21.99+9.4% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 13% slide in 7 weeks
2026-09-06Read Markdown25.27-4.8% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since July
2026-08-06Read Markup25.46-5.5% to today Markdown gives way to Markup
2026-07-02Read Markdown25.82-6.9% to today ✓First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Mueller Water Products, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $24.05. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 123 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 123 days
Price at the screen
$24.05
Valuation
17.29 trailing · 15.29 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.96
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
24.56%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 24.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
34.93%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 34.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.94%
Below 5%
Only 0.9% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Mueller Water Products, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 25%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 9% discount to our $26.48 fair value, 4.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 9.2% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $26.48, with a range of $20.23 to $33.71, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cities Cannot Run Without Steady Water Infrastructure
Every time a municipality fixes a leaking main or a new housing project connects to the grid, the valves, hydrants and meters have to come from somewhere. Mueller Water Products supplies those components across North America. The shares sit 23 percent below our fair value of 31.42 while delivering 21 percent return on equity and a 14 percent profit margin, yet the opportunity rating remains none.
Forward earnings sit at 16.2 times with revenue expanding just 6 percent a year. Six analysts carry a consensus buy and a 32 median target, and the business clears the ethical screen without issue. The combination points to a competent operator in a defensive niche rather than a mispriced compounder.
Construction and municipal budgets remain cyclical, and the unknown moat leaves room for competitors to chip away at margins over time. Modest top-line growth offers little cushion if spending slows. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MWA trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Accumulation$23.57-1.9%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $32. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Accumulation$24.02+5.4%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $32. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$22.79+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $32. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Accumulation$22.79+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $32. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$22.79+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $32. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$22.78+2.9%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $32. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$22.13+0.6%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $32. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $32. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$21.99+1.5%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $32. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-14Markdown$21.67-1.1%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $32. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
