An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Graco Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $82.26
Graco Inc holds its Markup at $82.26.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-29
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 13 days
Price
$82.26
Valuation
25.31 trailing · 23.47 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.92
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$82.26
25.31 P/E · 23.47 fwd
Our fair value
$70.65
14% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$94.00
+14% to current
Target low $84.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $100.00
▲ current $82.26 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$82.26
you are here
Conservative
$70.65
-14%
Analyst avg
$94.00
+14%
Our fair value
$70.65
-14%
Analyst high
$100.00
+22%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
3.30%
Profit margin
23.53%
Debt to equity
2.07
Analyst consensus
Hold · 7 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Pumps and Sprayers at a Premium Price
Picture a contractor finishing a paint job or a factory mixing chemicals without spills. Graco builds the equipment that makes those jobs possible across many industries. Yet with shares trading above our fair value estimate and growth barely above inflation, we see no compelling case to step in now.
Graco delivers steady profits and solid returns on equity, backed by a narrow moat in specialised fluid handling. The business clears our ethical screen without issue. Still, low single digit revenue growth and a forward multiple near 22 times leave little margin for error at current prices.
Risks centre on exposure to industrial cycles and construction spending, where even a narrow moat offers limited protection if demand slows. Analyst targets sit higher, yet we focus on the valuation gap rather than hoping for rerating. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 10.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $92. Entered 2026-07-31 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-31Markup · changed$82.26+10.3%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 10.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $92.
2026-07-18Markdown$74.60+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $92.
2026-07-03Markdown$74.60+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$74.60Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$77.39
-5.1%
·
$949
-5.1%
2 months
$87.32
-15.9%
$0.30
$845
-15.5%
3 months
$86.62
-15.2%
$0.30
$852
-14.8%
6 months
$83.14
-11.6%
$0.59
$891
-10.9%
1 year
$84.39
-12.9%
$1.14
$884
-11.6%
2 years
$77.38
-5.0%
$2.20
$978
-2.2%
3 years
$79.49
-7.6%
$3.18
$964
-3.6%
5 years
$69.38
+5.9%
$4.87
$1,129
+12.9%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever GGG does next, these words stay.
Graco Inc · GGG · Markup · $82.26
Recorded 2026-07-29 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
