2026-10-25
Graco clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
NAS100 27,087 +1.72%
S&P 7,401 +0.65%
GOLD $4,073 −1.00%
BTC $75,828 −0.15%
VIX 24.55 −12.88%
latest tape · as of 20:03 UTC
The Screen · Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery
Graco Inc
GGG · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $10.7B · 4,400 employees
Graco Inc.
Not yet scored67.97 USD
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 20:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price67.97 USD at the 5 Nov 2026 close
- Our value readFair vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026
- Our regime readDistribution, as of 5 Nov 2026
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans to puts (put/call 13.27)
- Last reviewed5 Nov 2026 (1 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: $70.11 to $80.63, base estimate $70.11 (screen dated 2026-11-05).
- Trend Distribution
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 13.27, read 2026-11-05
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price67.97 USD
Fair value70.11
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Distribution66.99+1.5% to today Accumulation gives way to Distribution after a 13% slide in 4 weeks
2026-10-02Read Accumulation76.59-11.3% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 7% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-30Read Markdown82.26-17.4% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since July
2026-07-31Read Markup82.26-17.4% to today Markdown gives way to Markup after a 10% rise in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its distribution label.
Graco Inc holds its Distribution at $67.97. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 6 days.
| Phase | Distribution · caution |
| Quantitative state | Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 6 days |
| Price at the screen | $67.97 |
| Valuation | 21.61 trailing · 19.34 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 0.88 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 1.58% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 1.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.00% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 31.09% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 31.1% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
Graco clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
Graco clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its debt is near-nil, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 0% discount to our $70.11 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 7.90% revenue growth.
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 3.1% discount to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +24% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere our models see it going: fair-value estimate $70.11, with a range of $70.11 to $80.63, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsPumps and Sprayers at a Premium Price
Picture a contractor finishing a paint job or a factory mixing chemicals without spills. Graco builds the equipment that makes those jobs possible across many industries. Yet with shares trading above our fair value estimate and growth barely above inflation, we see no compelling case to step in now.
Graco delivers steady profits and solid returns on equity, backed by a narrow moat in specialised fluid handling. The business clears our ethical screen without issue. Still, low single digit revenue growth and a forward multiple near 22 times leave little margin for error at current prices.
Risks centre on exposure to industrial cycles and construction spending, where even a narrow moat offers limited protection if demand slows. Analyst targets sit higher, yet we focus on the valuation gap rather than hoping for rerating. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 19.3xexpensive even after accounting for its growth |
| Trailing P/E | 21.6xa premium valuation |
| EPS, trailing | 3.10 |
| EPS, forward | 3.46 |
| Revenue growth | +7.9%slow but positive growth |
| Profit margin | 22.4%healthy profit margins |
| Return on equity | 20.4%an exceptional return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | 3.99% |
| Dividend yield | 158.00% |
| Debt to equity | 0.07minimal debt: a conservative balance sheet |
| Current ratio | 2.13comfortably covers its short-term bills |
| Beta | 0.88steadier than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.04% |
| 52-week range | 66.55 - 95.69 |
| Moat | NARROW |
| Market cap | $10.7B |
| Employees | 4,400 |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeGGG trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04
Distribution $69.16
+3.2% Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 3.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $92.
2026-10-28
Distribution · changed $66.99
-18.1% Entry 15
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 18.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $92. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
2026-10-21
Accumulation $81.78
+0.0% Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $92. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20
Accumulation $81.78
+0.0% Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $92. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19
Accumulation $81.78
+0.0% Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $92. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18
Accumulation $81.78
+0.0% Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $92. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-17
Accumulation $81.78
+0.0% Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $92. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16
Accumulation $81.78
+4.6% Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $92. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-15
Accumulation $78.21
+0.0% Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $92. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14
Accumulation $78.21
+2.1% Entry 7
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $92. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
- What Was Stanley Black & Decker Telling You Before Its Stock Ran? Yahoo Finance · 6d ago
- Ingersoll Rand Beats Q3 Earnings Estimates, Raises Revenue Guidance Yahoo Finance · 7d ago
- AOS Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates on Boiler Growth, Pricing Yahoo Finance · 8d ago
- Should You Be Worried About Stanley Black & Decker Stock? Yahoo Finance · 9d ago
- IDEX Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates on HST Strength, View Raised Yahoo Finance · 9d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
RRXRegal Rexnord Corp
CRCrane Co
GNRCGenerac
GTLSChart Industries, Inc.
DCIDonaldson Company, Inc.
WTSWatts Water Technologies Inc
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
| Date | Politician | Party | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-03 | Tommy Tuberville | Republican | sell | 1K–15K |
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $77.39 | -5.1% | · | $949 | -5.1% |
| 2 months | $87.32 | -15.9% | $0.30 | $845 | -15.5% |
| 3 months | $86.62 | -15.2% | $0.30 | $852 | -14.8% |
| 6 months | $83.14 | -11.6% | $0.59 | $891 | -10.9% |
| 1 year | $84.39 | -12.9% | $1.14 | $884 | -11.6% |
| 2 years | $77.38 | -5.0% | $2.20 | $978 | -2.2% |
| 3 years | $79.49 | -7.6% | $3.18 | $964 | -3.6% |
| 5 years | $69.38 | +5.9% | $4.87 | $1,129 | +12.9% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever GGG does next, these words stay.
Membership
Thirteen thousand names carry this page. One desk keeps them honest.
Membership opens the full screen archive, the composites built from it, and the daily coverage that prices what the screen approves.
Join the deskScreening is research, not a fatwa and not financial advice. Figures are drawn from public accounts at the screen date shown. Always manage your risk.