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The Screen · Basic Materials · Building Materials
CRH plc
CRH · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $60.3B · 83,032 employees
CRH plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides building materials solutions in Ireland, the United States, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
90.61 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
CRH plc holds its Markdown at $90.61. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 304 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 304 days
Price at the screen
$90.61
Valuation
16.01 trailing · 13.72 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.20
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
33.78%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 33.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.39%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.39%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 8% discount to our $97.83 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 5.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 8.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 23 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +54% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Construction booms hide the cycle trap
Roads, offices and homes all need aggregates and cement, yet the building cycle rarely stays kind for long. CRH trades above our fair value with a negative margin of safety and a forward multiple that flatters peak earnings in a notoriously cyclical sector. We pass.
Revenue growth sits at nine percent and return on equity reaches sixteen percent, yet the narrow moat and ten percent profit margin leave little room for error once volumes turn. The ethical screen also flags excessive debt, ruling the name out regardless of analyst enthusiasm.
High debt and exposure to construction swings create real downside when rates stay elevated or spending slows. The apparent value is a warning, not an opportunity. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Ireland and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CRH trades on a US exchange (the company is based in Ireland). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-29Distribution$93.09-6.8%Entry 11
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (24 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $143.
2026-07-30Distribution$99.87+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (24 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $143. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Distribution$99.87+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (24 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $143. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Distribution$99.87+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (24 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $143. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Distribution$99.87+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (24 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $143. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Distribution$99.87-3.0%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (24 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $143. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Distribution$102.92+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (24 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $143. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Distribution$102.92-2.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (24 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $143. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Distribution$105.06+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (24 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $143.
2026-07-03Distribution$105.06+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
