Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price90.47 USD
Fair value130.76
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-02Read Distribution103.11-12.3% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Boyd Group Services Inc. holds its Distribution at $90.47. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-04
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$90.47
Valuation
201.04 trailing · 18.68 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.67
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
62.43%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 62.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
44.68%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 44.7% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 45% discount to our $130.76 fair value, weak competitive moat, 29.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 44.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +71% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Debt load rules out this collision repair chain
Picture a workshop where every dent fixed brings in fresh revenue, yet the bills for borrowed tools keep the owner awake at night. Boyd Group Services shows 28% revenue growth across its North American sites, yet zero profit margins and a 1% return on equity leave little for owners. The ethical screen fails on its debt ratio, which overrides any apparent margin of safety and forces us to pass.
A weak moat and forward earnings multiple of 19.6 times add to the case for staying away. Three analysts may favour the name with a $155 median target, but thin returns and heavy borrowing tell a different story about durability through cycles.
High leverage in a consumer cyclical business raises the chance that downturns in accident volumes or rising interest costs could quickly erode what little equity return exists. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BGSI trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-23Distribution$93.36-10.3%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 10.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $167.
2026-07-23Distribution$104.06+0.9%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $167.
2026-07-18Distribution$103.11+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $167.
2026-07-03Distribution$103.11+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$103.11Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.