Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price24.18 USD
Fair value25.92
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-02Read Markup19.38+24.8% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Baxter International holds its Markdown at $24.18. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 14 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 14 days
Price at the screen
$24.18
Valuation
N/A trailing · 11.87 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.60
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
48.77%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 48.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.51%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
19.08%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 19.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.46%
Below 5%
Only 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 7% discount to our $25.92 fair value, weak competitive moat, 5.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 7.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +16% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Medical supplier weighed down by heavy debt
Hospitals depend on steady flows of sterile bags and therapies, yet Baxter keeps borrowing more than its operations can comfortably carry. We pass because the ethical screen rejects the debt load outright, and the business shows no sign of the growth or returns needed to justify the price above our fair value.
Forward earnings sit at 11.3 times while revenue edges up just 3 percent and both profit margin and return on equity sit deep in negative territory. A weak moat leaves it exposed to competitors that move faster on innovation and pricing.
Analysts sit on hold with targets near current levels, but the real concern remains leverage that could tighten further if healthcare spending slows. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BAX trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-22Markup$27.01+19.5%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 19.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-07-22Markup$22.61+16.7%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 16.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-07-18Markup$19.38+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-07-03Markup$19.38+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$19.38Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.