Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price30.63 USD
Fair value37.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-21Read Markdown30.98-1.1% to today ✓
2026-08-21Read Accumulation32.30-5.2% to today
2026-07-02Read Markdown21.47+42.7% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Alto Neuroscience Inc holds its Markdown at $30.63. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 35 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 35 days
Price at the screen
$30.63
Valuation
N/A trailing · -9.43 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.16
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Accounts receivable
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
12.97%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 13.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
95.56%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 95.6% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Alto Neuroscience's business is fine, but its receivables are about 96% of its assets, well over the ~49% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 20.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +21% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Clinical hopes rarely survive the trial maze
Picture a lab bench where one promising molecule for bipolar depression edges through Phase 2, yet the company still posts zero revenue and a negative 39 percent return on equity. Alto Neuroscience sits in that exact spot. The market prices the shares below our calculated fair value, but the absence of any economic moat and the consistent cash burn make this a clear pass for us.
Analysts see strong buy ratings and a median target near fair value, yet those forecasts rest on future trial success that remains unproven. Forward earnings sit at a negative multiple because profits are nowhere in sight. Without durable advantages or a path to sustainable margins, the valuation gap offers little comfort when the business model depends entirely on binary clinical outcomes.
Risks are straightforward. Trial failures can wipe out years of work overnight, repeated capital raises often dilute shareholders, and early-stage biotech carries execution and regulatory hurdles that rarely resolve quickly. The ethical screen clears, but that alone does not create an investment case.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; as a biotechnology name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ANRO trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown$30.63-1.1%Entry 8
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 642%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (11 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-09-21Markdown · changed$30.98-4.1%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 642%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (11 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $35. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 17.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 642%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (11 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-07-21Markdown$27.54+28.3%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 28.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 642%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (11 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-07-18Markdown$21.47+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 642%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (11 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-07-17Markdown$21.47+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 642%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (11 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $35.
2026-07-03Markdown$21.47+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$21.47Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.