Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-08-05
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical screen not yet scored
Price66.55 USD
Fair value86.76
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-21Read Markup69.54-4.3% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution66.85-0.4% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Alcon Inc holds its Markdown at $66.55. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 6 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 6 days
Price at the screen
$66.55
Valuation
50.80 trailing · 16.73 forward price to earnings
Values screen
Not scored· score 70.0
Beta
0.70
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
1.61%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 1.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
0.71%
Below 5%
Only 0.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 30.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +29% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Eye care products at a quiet discount
Picture a patient in Zurich getting new lenses after cataract surgery or a teenager in Texas picking up monthly contacts. Both routes run through Alcon, the specialist supplier of surgical gear and vision care products that sits between big pharma and everyday opticians. The shares sit 25 percent below our fair value at a forward multiple of 17.7 times, with revenue climbing 9 percent and an ethical screen cleared.
Yet the numbers still do not add up to an opportunity. Return on equity is stuck at just 4 percent and the profit margin is only 8 percent, both modest for a business that carries only a narrow moat. Analyst targets cluster near 88 dollars, but the low returns and limited pricing power keep the name off our list despite the apparent discount.
Currency moves in emerging markets and steady competition from larger device makers remain real drags on margins. The setup looks stable rather than compelling.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Switzerland and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ALC trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Switzerland). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-21Markup · changed$69.54-1.0%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88.
2026-07-21Distribution$70.26+5.1%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88.
2026-07-18Distribution$66.85+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88.
2026-07-17Distribution$66.85+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88.
2026-07-03Distribution$66.85+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$66.85Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
