An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Alcon Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $67.28
Alcon Inc holds its Markup at $67.28.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-27
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 20 days
Price
$67.28
Valuation
40.29 trailing · 16.96 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.70
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$67.28
40.29 P/E · 16.96 fwd
Our fair value
$87.64
30% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$88.00
+31% to current
Target low $62.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $107.40
▲ current $67.28 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$67.28
you are here
Conservative
$65.46
-3%
Analyst avg
$88.00
+31%
Our fair value
$87.64
+30%
Analyst high
$107.40
+60%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
9.40%
Profit margin
7.70%
Debt to equity
23.77
Analyst consensus
Buy · 15 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Eye care products at a quiet discount
Picture a patient in Zurich getting new lenses after cataract surgery or a teenager in Texas picking up monthly contacts. Both routes run through Alcon, the specialist supplier of surgical gear and vision care products that sits between big pharma and everyday opticians. The shares sit 25 percent below our fair value at a forward multiple of 17.7 times, with revenue climbing 9 percent and an ethical screen cleared.
Yet the numbers still do not add up to an opportunity. Return on equity is stuck at just 4 percent and the profit margin is only 8 percent, both modest for a business that carries only a narrow moat. Analyst targets cluster near 88 dollars, but the low returns and limited pricing power keep the name off our list despite the apparent discount.
Currency moves in emerging markets and steady competition from larger device makers remain real drags on margins. The setup looks stable rather than compelling.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88. Entered 2026-07-21 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-21Distribution$70.26+5.1%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88.
2026-07-18Distribution$66.85+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88.
2026-07-17Distribution$66.85+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $88.
2026-07-03Distribution$66.85+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$66.85Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming ALC
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
7 May2026
Sara Jacobs
Democrat
sell
500K–1M
6 May2026
Sara Jacobs
Democrat
sell
500K–1M
2026-05-07
Sara Jacobs
Democrat
Sale
500K–1M
2026-05-06
Sara Jacobs
Democrat
Sale
500K–1M
2026-04-13
Ro Khanna
Democrat
Sale
1K–15K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$62.02
+7.0%
·
$1,070
+7.0%
2 months
$77.63
-14.5%
$0.36
$859
-14.1%
3 months
$78.12
-15.1%
$0.36
$854
-14.6%
6 months
$78.38
-15.3%
$0.36
$851
-14.9%
1 year
$88.52
-25.0%
$0.36
$754
-24.6%
2 years
$90.68
-26.8%
$0.69
$739
-26.1%
3 years
$78.12
-15.1%
$0.95
$861
-13.9%
5 years
$69.21
-4.1%
$1.39
$979
-2.1%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever ALC does next, these words stay.
Alcon Inc · ALC · Markup · $67.28
Recorded 2026-07-27 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
