Framework Journal · one stock, one dated entry

Recorded 2026-07-19 · Permanent

Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited TEN

Clears the common standard

An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.

In plain words · Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides seaborne crude oil and petroleum product transportation services in Greece and internationally.

The label
Distribution

read at $37.62

Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited holds its Distribution at $37.62.

PHINPOOPSC
  • PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
  • INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
  • POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
  • OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
  • SCScreen · passes the values gate
  • edge confirmed
  • edge broken
  • edge forming

Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.

The investor read · the season, not the day

As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
PhaseDistribution · caution
Quantitative stateConsolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price$37.62
Valuation6.14 trailing · 12.82 forward price to earnings
Values screenPASS · score 70.0
Beta-0.27

The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth

Read at
$37.62
6.14 P/E · 12.82 fwd
Our fair value
$35.40
6% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$46.00
+22% to current
Target low $42.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $50.00
▲ current $37.62 · | average target

Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going

$53.4$28.7$4.1TODAY5y agoPROJECTIONAnalyst high$50.00 +35%Analyst avg$46.00 +24%Conservative$35.40 -5%Our fair value$35.40 -5%

The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street

Current
$37.62
you are here
Conservative
$35.40
-6%
Analyst avg
$46.00
+22%
Our fair value
$35.40
-6%
Analyst high
$50.00
+33%

Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.

Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.

Revenue growth28.40%
Profit margin24.81%
Debt to equity109.66
Analyst consensusNone · 2 covering

Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.

The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English

It depends which standard you follow. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor, and on this company they disagree. Here is how it did on each:

The common standard · AAOIFI
Used by most halal investing apps
✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard · asset-based
The one Titan applies
✓ PASSES

Why the two disagree. They fall out over one thing only: the company’s debt. Our stricter standard measures that debt against what the company owns, and it works out too high to pass. The common standard measures the same debt against what the company is worth on the stock market, where it works out low enough to pass. Every other check, the two agree on. So in practice, most halal apps would treat this as fine to hold, while our stricter view would not — and which line you follow is between you and your scholar.

What these two standards are, and how they differ →

  • Business activity Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. Pass
  • Debt load Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows. Against market value it is 188.5%, under the 30% line the market-value standard uses — so that standard clears it. Divergent
  • Interest-bearing cash Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit. Fail
  • Receivables Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit. Fail
  • Revenue purity Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line. Pass

Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.

The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean

Oil tankers look cheap until the cycle turns

Oil still needs to move across oceans in tankers owned by companies like this one, yet the shares sit 6% above our fair value with no opportunity rating to speak of. Forward earnings sit at 12.8 times while revenue has grown 28% and margins reach 25%, but the cyclical nature of crude shipping means those figures often mark peaks rather than entry points.

We pass because a low multiple in this sector frequently signals fading earnings ahead, not a bargain, even though the ethical screen clears cleanly and return on equity holds at 12%. Two analysts offer a higher median target, yet that does not offset the lack of margin of safety.

Risk sits in sharp swings in oil volumes and charter rates that can erase profits quickly when demand softens. The business carries real exposure to global trade shocks and vessel oversupply that a simple earnings multiple does not capture.

Analysis, not advice.

The fundamentals · plain-English read
Forward P/E12.8x
cheap for a company growing this fast
Trailing P/E6.1x
very cheap relative to earnings
Revenue growth28.4%
strong top-line growth
Profit margin24.8%
healthy profit margins
Return on equity11.6%
a modest return on shareholder capital
Debt to equity1.10
a meaningful debt load worth watching
Beta-0.27
barely tracks the market's swings
Market cap$1.1B

The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to Greece and to currency swings.

Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.

Related securities · others in TEN's space worth a look

Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.

Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are

TEN trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Greece). As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.

The trader read · the latest dated commentary

The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 117%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $46. Entered 2026-07-18 · Accumulation

The dated journal · newest first, never edited

2026-07-18 Accumulation $38.77 +0.0% Entry 3

The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 117%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $46.

2026-07-03 Accumulation $38.77 +0.0% Entry 2

The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.

2026-07-02 Accumulation $38.77 Entry 1

The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.

Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.

The political ledger · congressional disclosures

Disclosures naming TEN
DatePoliticianPartyTypeAmount
21 Apr2026 Scott Peters Democrat buy 250K–500K
2026-04-20 Jonathan Jackson Democrat Sale 15K–50K
2026-04-15 Jonathan Jackson Democrat Sale 1K–15K
2026-04-13 Ro Khanna Democrat Purchase 1K–15K
20 Apr2026 Jonathan Jackson Democrat sell 15K–50K

What holding actually paid · price plus dividends

If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
PeriodPrice thenPrice returnDivs per share$1,000 becameTotal return
1 month $43.44 -14.6% · $854 -14.6%
2 months $39.01 -4.9% · $951 -4.9%
3 months $34.81 +6.6% · $1,066 +6.6%
6 months $23.70 +56.5% · $1,565 +56.5%
1 year $17.12 +116.7% $0.60 $2,202 +120.2%
2 years $27.97 +32.7% $2.10 $1,402 +40.2%
3 years $14.98 +147.7% $2.80 $2,664 +166.4%
5 years $7.47 +397.0% $3.45 $5,432 +443.2%

Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever TEN does next, these words stay.

Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited · TEN · Distribution · $37.62
Recorded 2026-07-19 · before the outcome · scored mechanically

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