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The Screen · Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Brewers
Constellation Brands
STZ · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $20.8B · 9,400 employees
Constellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
118.97 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-18 · not a live quote Last reviewed 4 days ago
Screened 2026-09-18 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 118.97 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 209.00, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price118.97 USD
Fair value209.00
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-14Read Distribution121.55-2.1% to today ✓
2026-08-14Read Accumulation130.64-8.9% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution140.91-15.6% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Constellation Brands holds its Markdown at $118.97. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 32 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 32 days
Price at the screen
$118.97
Valuation
11.58 trailing · 9.81 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.40
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Distillers & Vintners
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 76% discount to our $209.00 fair value, moderate competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 75.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 23 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +45% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
Reach for a Corona in any bar and Constellation Brands has already taken its cut. The business sits on a moderate moat, 20 percent profit margins and 24 percent ROE, yet we pass without hesitation.
The ethical screen flags the company on business activity grounds, and that single failure overrides every other number. Revenue is already falling 3 percent, the shares trade at just 10.7 times forward earnings, and even the analyst crowd sees only modest upside from here.
A cyclical consumer staple can look cheap right before volumes keep sliding, and an ethical fail removes any margin for debate. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
STZ trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (23 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $171.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 7.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (22 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $178.
2026-07-18Distribution$140.91+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (22 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $178.
2026-07-03Distribution$140.91+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$140.91Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
