Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price13.97 USD
Fair value22.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-02Read Distribution15.18-8.0% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Newmark Group, Inc. holds its Markdown at $13.97. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$13.97
Valuation
17.46 trailing · 6.33 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.67
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
41.89%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 41.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
17.08%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 17.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 57.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +40% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Real estate brokers and the cheap earnings trap
Picture a broker closing a big office deal in Manhattan. The commission lands, revenue jumps 27 percent, yet only 4 percent sticks as profit. Newmark shows exactly that pattern: a low 7.2 times forward multiple and a 12 percent return on equity that looks attractive until you remember commercial real estate volumes swing hard with interest rates and leasing cycles. The market prices the shares at 15.60 dollars against our 22 dollar fair value, but the thin margins and unknown competitive edge keep us on the sidelines.
Analysts see modest upside to 19 dollars and the ethical screen clears, yet none of that changes the core issue. Peak-cycle earnings often sit behind low multiples in this sector, and nothing here signals durable pricing power once the current leasing wave fades.
Risk sits in the cyclical exposure and the narrow profit conversion, both of which can erase apparent value quickly when transaction volumes drop. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NMRK trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-06Distribution$15.76+1.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20.
2026-08-06Distribution$15.60+2.8%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20.
2026-07-18Distribution$15.18+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20.
2026-07-03Distribution$15.18+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$15.18Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
