Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price59.69 USD
Fair value86.00
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-04Read Accumulation56.32+6.0% to today ✓
2026-09-03Read Markdown56.32+6.0% to today
2026-08-04Read Distribution57.98+2.9% to today
2026-07-18Read Markup63.57-6.1% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Kroger holds its Markup at $59.69. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 232 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 232 days
Price at the screen
$59.69
Valuation
34.91 trailing · 10.83 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.41
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
49.43%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 49.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
2.49%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
11.06%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 11.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · AFSC Investigate
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Documented on AFSC Investigate. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 44% discount to our $86.00 fair value, weak competitive moat, 2.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 44.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 22 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +20% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Common supermarket name we choose to avoid
Walk into any American supermarket and Kroger products sit on the shelves. Yet we pass on the name. The low forward multiple and apparent margin of safety do not outweigh the ethical red flag on debt levels.
Revenue edges up just 2 percent while net margins sit at 1 percent and the moat is rated weak. Return on equity reaches 14 percent but that is not enough to offset the debt screen failure. Analysts may cluster around a buy call with a $72 median target, yet our verdict stays clear.
High leverage creates real vulnerability when interest rates stay elevated or consumer spending slows. The ethical screen exists for moments like this. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
KR trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-11Accumulation$56.44+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $76. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-10Accumulation$56.44+0.2%Entry 11
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $76. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-09Accumulation$56.32+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $76. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-08Accumulation$56.32+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $76. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-06Accumulation$56.32+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $76. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-05Accumulation$56.32+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $76. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $76. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-03Markdown · changed$56.32-2.9%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $76.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 8.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $76.
2026-07-18Markup$63.57+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $76.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
