NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,416+0.37%BTC$81,118+6.17%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 13:00 UTC
The Screen · Industrials
Elbit Systems Ltd.
ESLT · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $33.5B
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
714.40 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Elbit Systems Ltd. holds its Markdown at $714.40. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 12 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 12 days
Price at the screen
$714.40
Valuation
53.63 trailing · 38.91 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
-0.30
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited sector: defense
Fail
Debt load
0.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 13.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +21% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Defence Maker Trips Ethical Screen at Premium Price
Elbit Systems supplies the drones, radars and targeting systems that armed forces use from the Middle East to Europe. Revenue is growing at 16 percent and return on equity sits at a respectable 16 percent, yet the ethical screen rules the business out on the grounds of its core activity.
That leaves the numbers looking expensive. Forward earnings sit at 41 times while our fair value sits 18 percent below the current $741 share price. Analyst targets cluster around $862 but the thin 7 percent profit margin and moderate moat offer little cushion if defence budgets tighten.
Government contract cycles and currency moves already create real volatility. Paying a premium for a name that fails the screen simply adds unnecessary risk. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
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The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 8.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 98%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $900.
2026-07-28Markdown$812.86-1.3%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 98%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $900.
2026-07-18Markdown$823.36+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 98%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $900.
2026-07-03Markdown$823.36+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$823.36Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
