Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.53, read 2026-11-04
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price703.46 USD
Fair value601.12
Value readOvervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-23Read Markup741.61-5.1% to today Markdown gives way to Markup after a 5% rise in 3 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markdown704.27-0.1% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since July
2026-08-28Read Distribution741.33-5.1% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 10% slide in 8 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markdown823.36-14.6% to today ✓First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Elbit Systems Ltd. holds its Markup at $703.46. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 56 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 56 days
Price at the screen
$703.46
Valuation
58.67 trailing · 41.89 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
-0.30
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited sector: defense
Fail
Debt load
0.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.08%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Elbit Systems does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in aerospace and defense, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when ESLT's ethical verdict changes
Today ESLT does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Cited by BDS movement and AFSC as Israel's largest private defense manufacturer, supplying drones, surveillance systems, and weapons used in the occupied territories. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades above our $601.12 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 15.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 17.0% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +18% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $601.12, with a range of $466.20 to $691.29, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it gives us pause
At 41.9x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. It trades 26% above our $601.12 fair value, so you would be buying at a premium, not a discount. The moderate moat is real, but quality alone does not make an expensive price cheap.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ESLT trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-30Markup$735.34-0.8%Entry 9
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 98%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $900.
2026-10-23Markup · changed$741.61+0.0%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 98%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $900.
2026-10-16Markdown$741.61+5.3%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 5.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 98%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $900.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$704.27-5.0%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 98%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $900.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 8.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 98%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $900.
2026-07-28Markdown$812.86-1.3%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 98%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $900.
2026-07-18Markdown$823.36+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 98%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $900.
2026-07-03Markdown$823.36+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$823.36Entry 1
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
