Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price36.25 USD
Fair value44.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-25Read Accumulation37.24-2.7% to today
2026-07-25Read Markdown30.42+19.2% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution33.80+7.2% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Cinemark Holdings, Inc. holds its Markdown at $36.25. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 54 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 54 days
Price at the screen
$36.25
Valuation
20.25 trailing · 13.80 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.98
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
67.48%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 67.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.25%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.24%
Below 5%
Only 1.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 21.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cinema crowds return but the business stays cyclical
Picture a packed Friday night screening after years of empty seats. Cinemark is riding a post-pandemic rebound with revenue up 19 percent and return on equity at 47 percent, yet the forward multiple sits at just 12.4 times earnings and the profit margin remains a thin 5 percent. The market prices the shares well below our fair value of 38 dollars, but the opportunity rating stays at none.
The recovery story is real and the ethical screen clears without issue, yet the lack of a visible moat leaves the firm exposed to whatever Hollywood produces next and whatever consumers choose to spend. Analyst targets cluster around 36 dollars on a buy consensus, which still leaves little margin once the cycle turns.
Movie exhibition is a classic cyclical business, so the low multiple may simply reflect peak earnings rather than a bargain. Currency moves in Latin America and shifting viewer habits add further volatility that a simple valuation gap does not capture.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CNK trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 22.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-07-25Markdown · changed$30.42-10.0%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 10.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-07-18Distribution$33.80+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-07-03Distribution$33.80+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$33.80Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.