Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price152.70 USD
Fair value167.00
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Distribution152.70+0.0% to today
2026-09-19Read Markdown162.20-5.9% to today ✓
2026-08-20Read Markup173.00-11.7% to today
2026-07-02Read Markdown180.80-15.5% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Bupa Arabia for Cooperative Insurance Company holds its Distribution at $152.70. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 115 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-29
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 115 days
Price at the screen
$152.70
Valuation
20.50 trailing · 15.10 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
0.12
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity: conventional financial services (interest-based)
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Its core business involves an activity the values screen does not clear.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Bupa Arabia for Cooperative Insurance does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-29 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 9.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +19% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-29 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Saudi Arabia and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
8210.SR trades on SAU (the company is based in Saudi Arabia). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $191.
2026-09-19Markdown · changed$162.20-6.2%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $191.
2026-08-20Markup · changed$173.00+8.9%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $191.
2026-07-20Markdown$158.90-12.1%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 12.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $191.
2026-07-18Markdown$180.80+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $191.
2026-07-16Markdown$180.80+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $191.
2026-07-03Markdown$180.80+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$180.80Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.