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The Screen · Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited
2319.HK · UNKNOWN · USD · Market cap $68.3B
China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and distributes dairy products under the MENGNIU brand in the People's Republic of China, the Chinese Mainland and internationally.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price17.68 USD
Fair value27.10
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-02Read Markdown16.39+7.9% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited holds its Markdown at $17.68. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-22
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$17.68
Valuation
39.29 trailing · 10.52 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS
Beta
0.28
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
26.29%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 26.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
12.27%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 12.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
16.70%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 16.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.02%
Below 5%
Only 1.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
China Mengniu Dairy clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 26%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 1% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-22 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 53.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 25 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +30% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-22 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Hong Kong and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
2319.HK trades on UNKNOWN (the company is based in Hong Kong). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown$17.68-0.4%Entry 8
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (25 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-09-18Markdown$17.75-3.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (25 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-08-19Markdown$18.29+2.2%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (25 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-07-19Markdown$17.90+9.2%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 9.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (25 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-07-18Markdown$16.39+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (25 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-07-15Markdown$16.39+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-03Markdown$16.39+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$16.39Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
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