Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price227.35 USD
Fair value211.91
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-15Read Markdown227.35+0.0% to today
2026-07-02Read Markup204.08+11.4% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Twilio Inc holds its Accumulation at $227.35. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$227.35
Valuation
31.45 trailing · 33.50 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.41
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
11.07%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 11.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
18.30%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 18.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
13.50%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 13.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 6.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 29 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +17% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Twilio powers messages yet misses on value
Picture a small business sending a verification code or a delivery alert. That message often travels across Twilio's network of APIs. The setup looks useful on the surface yet the numbers tell a cooler story.
The shares sit ten percent above our fair value with a forward multiple of thirty one times. Revenue climbs twenty percent but profit margins sit at two percent and return on equity at one percent. A narrow moat and an opportunity rating of none leave little margin for error.
Growth may continue yet the current price already prices in strong execution. Low returns on capital and a stretched valuation create the real risk of disappointment. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TWLO trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-15Markdown · changed$227.35+17.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 17.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 81% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $197.
2026-08-15Markup$193.20-5.3%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 5.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 81% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $197.
2026-07-18Markup$204.08+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 81% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $197.
2026-07-03Markup$204.08+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$204.08Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
