Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price10.22 USD
Fair value13.63
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-22Read Distribution10.22+0.0% to today
2026-07-22Read Accumulation9.79+4.4% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Distribution10.28-0.6% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Axia Energia ADR holds its Distribution at $10.22. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 78 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-17
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 78 days
Price at the screen
$10.22
Valuation
10.02 trailing · 10.99 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.22
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
27.63%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 27.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.68%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
7.86%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 7.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.15%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-17 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 33.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +32% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-17 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Brazil renewables flash value but we pass
Picture a wind turbine spinning on a Brazilian hillside and the power reaching homes through a network built for local conditions. Axia delivers that with 22% revenue growth, 22% profit margins and an 8.4x forward multiple against a $14.70 fair value that implies real margin of safety. Yet the opportunity rating sits at none, so we pass.
Narrow moat and 8% ROE point to limited pricing power and modest returns on capital even before Brazil specific hurdles appear. Currency swings, regulatory resets and thin analyst coverage add layers that blunt the apparent discount.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Brazil and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AXIA trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Brazil). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-22Accumulation · changed$9.79-4.8%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 4.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-18Distribution$10.28+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 41%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $14.
2026-07-03Distribution$10.28+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$10.28Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.