Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-08-04
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price37.46 USD
Fair value43.71
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-21Read Markdown37.01+1.2% to today
2026-08-21Read Markup43.48-13.8% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution42.34-11.5% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
APi Group Corp holds its Markdown at $37.46. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$37.46
Valuation
N/A trailing · 18.84 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.60
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
34.38%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 34.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
27.70%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 27.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 16.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +41% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Fire safety contracts keep buildings running
Picture every new office tower or hospital wing that needs sprinklers, alarms and lifts installed on time. APi Group handles that work across two service lines and is growing revenue at 15 percent a year. The shares sit 13 percent below our fair value, the ethical screen is clear, yet the opportunity rating stays at none.
The business earns a narrow moat, a 4 percent profit margin and 10 percent return on equity. Those figures, paired with a 20.1 times forward multiple, leave little room for error once construction cycles turn. Analyst targets sit higher, but the numbers do not clear the threshold for a positive call.
Currency swings and project delays in the engineering sector add real volatility. Low margins mean any cost overrun quickly eats returns. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
APG trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-21Markdown · changed$37.01-14.9%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 14.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $53.
2026-08-21Markup · changed$43.48+8.4%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $53.
2026-07-21Distribution$40.12-5.2%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $53.
2026-07-18Distribution$42.34+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $53.
2026-07-17Distribution$42.34+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $53.
2026-07-03Distribution$42.34+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$42.34Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
