Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price58.44 USD
Fair value54.89
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-02Read Accumulation57.06+2.4% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
TXNM Energy, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $58.44. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$58.44
Valuation
31.93 trailing · 17.97 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.17
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
47.31%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 47.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
4.19%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 4.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.41%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 1.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.93%
Below 5%
Only 0.9% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 6.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +4% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Reliable Power Delivery at a Premium Price
Every time a household flips a switch in the southwest, the bill flows through a regulated network built for stability rather than speed. TXNM Energy delivers that steady service, yet it trades above our fair value with a negative margin of safety and no opportunity rating. Forward earnings sit at 17.7 times while revenue edges ahead only 5 percent a year and return on equity reaches just 5 percent.
The business clears our ethical screen with no red flags on governance or impact. Six analysts see a median target of 61 dollars, but the low profit margin of 7 percent and unknown moat leave little margin for error in a sector where growth rarely surprises.
Regulatory resets and rising interest costs remain the clearest threats to returns that already look modest. The stock offers predictability, yet the numbers show no discount for that safety.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TXNM trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-15Accumulation$57.67+0.3%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $61.
2026-08-15Accumulation$57.49+0.8%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $61.
2026-07-18Accumulation$57.06+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $61.
2026-07-03Accumulation$57.06+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$57.06Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
