Screened 2026-09-16 · the tape above runs as of 17:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Target Hospitality Corp. holds its Markup at $18.76. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 12 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-16
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 12 days
Price at the screen
$18.76
Valuation
N/A trailing · 20.55 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.51
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
2.02%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 2.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
12.17%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 12.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.73%
Below 5%
Only 0.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-16 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 15.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +33% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-16 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Remote worker housing fails every value test
Picture crews arriving at remote energy or construction sites needing beds, meals and laundry for months on end. Target Hospitality supplies those temporary villages across North America, yet the numbers show a business still losing money at scale. Revenue edges up just 4 percent while profit margins sit at minus 13 percent and return on equity is minus 11 percent.
At 23.4 times forward earnings the shares trade well above our fair value of 15.05 dollars against a current price of 16.36 dollars, delivering a negative margin of safety and an opportunity rating of none. The ethical screen passes cleanly, but that alone cannot offset thin growth, unknown competitive protection and persistent losses.
Analyst targets cluster near 22 dollars on a strong buy consensus, yet those forecasts sit atop a balance sheet that has yet to prove it can convert demand into sustained profit. Cyclical exposure to project work adds further uncertainty around any recovery in margins.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TH trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-14Markup · changed$18.96+17.5%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 17.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 81% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 144%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-08-14Markdown · changed$16.14-12.3%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 12.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 81% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 144%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-07-18Markup$18.40+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 81% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 144%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-07-03Markup$18.40+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$18.40Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
