NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,416+0.37%BTC$81,118+6.17%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 07:00 UTC
The Screen · Technology · Software - Infrastructure
StoneCo Ltd.
STNE · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $2.2B
StoneCo Ltd.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
9.67 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-15
Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 07:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
StoneCo Ltd. holds its Accumulation at $9.67. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 40 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 40 days
Price at the screen
$9.67
Valuation
3.62 trailing · 4.22 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.62
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Accounts receivable
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
28.22%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 28.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
4.78%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 4.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
74.35%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 74.4% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
5.63%
Below 5%
5.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 79.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 17 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +43% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Brazil merchants still shuffle cash through old pipes
StoneCo wires payments and digital banking into the daily grind of Brazilian merchants, from corner shops to online sellers. It clears transactions and offers prepayments where global card networks still stumble. The numbers look tidy on paper, with a 26% profit margin, 31% return on equity and a forward multiple of just 4.7 times, yet revenue is crawling along at only 4% a year.
We pass because the business shows no clear edge. An unknown moat and single-digit growth leave it exposed even at this depressed price. Analyst targets sit around 17 dollars against our own higher fair value, but the low growth and patchy competitive position outweigh any apparent bargain.
Brazil currency swings and regulatory shifts sit at the heart of the risk. A sudden policy change or economic slowdown can wipe out thin margins fast, and the unknown moat offers little defence. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Cayman Islands and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
STNE trades on Nasdaq (the company is based in Cayman Islands). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-14Markup · changed$9.72-8.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 8.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-08-13Markdown · changed$10.60-5.9%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-18Distribution$11.26+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-03Distribution$11.26+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$11.26Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
