Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. holds its Markdown at $7.06. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 45 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 45 days
Price at the screen
$7.06
Valuation
37.16 trailing · 12.81 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.89
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
19.40%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 19.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
15.06%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 15.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.06%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 86.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 19 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +70% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Solar wiring growth masks wafer-thin returns
Picture a solar farm where every panel needs custom cabling and combiners to feed power into the grid. Shoals makes those essential bits, and its revenue has leapt 75 percent. Yet profit margins sit at just 6 percent and return on equity matches that figure, leaving little cushion once installation cycles turn.
The market prices the shares at 20.4 times forward earnings with a modest 17 percent gap to our fair value. That spread looks thin once the unknown competitive moat and low profitability are factored in. Nineteen analysts call it a buy, yet their median target barely clears the current price, and opportunity rating stays at none.
Solar balance-of-system demand can swing with subsidy changes and raw-material costs, which keeps execution risk high despite the ethical screen clearing. Thin margins leave little room for error if growth slows. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SHLS trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-12Markdown · changed$7.42-28.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 28.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 78%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $10.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 78%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $10.
2026-07-18Markup$10.43+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 78%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $10.
2026-07-03Markup$10.43+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$10.43Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
