NAS10030,482+2.83%S&P7,765+1.49%GOLD$4,362−0.51%BTC$85,955−0.75%VIX14.66−1.41%live tape · as of 17:00 UTC
The Screen · Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric
Companhia Paranaense de Energia
ELPC · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $9.4B · 4,287 employees
Companhia Paranaense de Energia - COPEL, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, study, planning, construction, production, transformation, transportation, distribution, and commercialization of electric…
Not yet scored
12.66 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-21 · not a live quote
Screened 2026-09-21 · the tape above runs as of 17:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 12.66 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 12.95, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical screen not yet scored
Price12.66 USD
Fair value12.95
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-27Read Markdown11.29+12.1% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution11.61+9.0% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Companhia Paranaense de Energia holds its Accumulation at $12.66. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 11 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 11 days
Price at the screen
$12.66
Valuation
15.07 trailing · 17.44 forward price to earnings
Values screen
Not scored· score 70.0
Beta
0.26
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 2.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +18% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Brazilian Utility Shows Growth But Thin Margin
Picture a regulated power company lighting up homes across southern Brazil while juggling local rules and currency swings. Companhia Paranaense de Energia delivers 20% revenue growth and a 10% profit margin, yet our fair value sits only 11% above the current $11.62 share price. With a forward P/E of 16.3x and an unknown moat, the setup fails to clear our opportunity threshold despite passing the ethical screen.
The business runs three segments focused on generation, transmission and distribution, supported by an 11% return on equity. Analyst consensus calls for a strong buy with a $15 median target, but that optimism rests on execution in a single emerging market. The numbers look steady rather than compelling.
Currency moves, regulatory resets and modest returns on capital form the main risks, keeping any upside tightly capped. The combination leaves no clear edge once those exposures are priced in.
Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Brazil and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ELPC trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Brazil). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-27Markdown · changed$11.29-2.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $17.
2026-07-27Distribution$11.57-0.3%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $17.
2026-07-18Distribution$11.61+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 37%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $17.
2026-07-03Distribution$11.61+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$11.61Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.